Summary Bitcoin has been the primary beneficiary of investment capital in the Digital Asset space since the approval of spot ETFs in early 2024. June is showing a potential change in sentiment, with negative net flow through June 7th. With Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust being a notable exception, most US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have negative BTC-denominated AUM growth year to date. BTC remains a cost-effective way to get exposure to an anti-fiat debasement trade in 2025. Through the first week of June, Digital Asset investment net flows came in at $224 million. While this was the seventh consecutive week of positive net flow in the asset class, the week ended June 7th saw the weakest inflow story in nearly two months. Furthermore, if you take out iShares ETF products, year to date net flow into Digital Assets is actually negative. In this article, covering the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF ( BTC ), we'll look at capital flow trends in the Bitcoin USD ( BTC-USD ) ETF products, issuer flows, as well as broader considerations for investors interested in Bitcoin. Capital Flow Winners and Losers There is no doubt at this point that Bitcoin has been the primary beneficiary of investment capital in the Digital Asset space since the approval of spot ETFs in early-2024. That outperformance continued through the first 5 months of 2025 with Bitcoin accounting for roughly 90% of year to date net flow and 86% of the Digital Asset financial product AUM: Asset (mil) MTD Flows YTD Flows AUM Bitcoin -$57 $10,143 $151,223 Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) $296 $1,701 $14,092 Multi-asset -$5.9 -$142 $6,763 Solana ( SOL-USD ) -$1.1 $79 $1,403 XRP ( XRP-USD ) -$4.0 $194 $1,216 Total $225 $11,342 $175,869 Source: CoinShares, as of June, 7th 2025 However, June is showing a potential change in sentiment, with many of the high-fliers from the last 12–18 months showing negative net flow through June 7th. This is happening while Ethereum - a hugely disappointing laggard post-ETF approvals - masked what would have been a week of negative net outflow were it not for inflow of just under $300 million through the first seven days of the month. Admittedly, this is just one week of data in a longer-term story. But it's interesting to me, nonetheless. The provider details are also quite telling because one product issuer is essentially the entire market so far this year and in June as well: Provider (mil) MTD Flows YTD Flows AUM iShares $330 $12,732 $72,844 Grayscale -$16 -$1,741 $29,339 Fidelity -$168 -$274 $20,511 ARK 21 Shrs -$25 -$47 $4,789 Bitwise -$13 -$273 $4,219 Total $225 $11,342 $175,869 Source: CoinShares, as of June, 7th 2025 Were it not for the $330 million month to date net flows into iShares products, investment in Digital Asset ETFs would have been negative through the first week of June. Unlike the asset breakout, this is not a new trend. The year to date story is quite similar with $12.7 billion in positive net flows year to date while most of the other major asset managers have actually seen outflow. This is indeed the case for Grayscale, Fidelity, and Bitwise. This would seemingly indicate that it is the asset class itself, rather than a simple 'fee flight' migration from Grayscale products. ETF BTC Balances 12/31/2024 7/9/2025 Change YoY iShares Bitcoin Trust ( IBIT ) 552,168 662,707 110,539 20.0% Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin ( FBTC ) 202,800 196,264 -6,536 -3.2% ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ( ARKB ) 46,729 45,616 -1,113 -2.4% Bitwise Bitcoin ETF ( BITB ) 40,196 37,783 -2,413 -6.0% BTC 38,342 43,436 5,094 13.3% Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ( GBTC ) 206,835 185,234 -21,601 -10.4% Total Spot ETFs 1,286,857 1,365,429 78,572 6.1% Source: Bitcoin Treasuries The clear outlier in this table is IBIT with the 20% year to date change in BTC holdings. Grayscale's Mini Trust, which is up 13.3% in BTC-denominated holdings, has jumped BITB as a 'top-5' fund this year by AUM but has failed to make up for the 21.6k Bitcoins that have come out of Grayscale's flagship Bitcoin product. If it was just a 'fee flight' story, I would think Grayscale's Mini Trust would be a bigger beneficiary of asset flow than IBIT: Fund Comparison Inception Expense Ratio AUM IBIT 01/05/2024 0.25% $71.85 ARKB 01/10/2024 0.21% $4.97 FBTC 01/10/2024 0.25% $20.49 BITB 01/10/2024 0.20% $4.10 GBTC 09/25/2013 1.50% $20.13 BTC 07/31/2024 0.15% $4.73 Source: Seeking Alpha, June 10th 2025, AUM in billions While still far more competitive than the 1.5% expense ratio seen through GBTC, IBIT is more expensive than Grayscale's Mini Trust and two additional offerings with top 5 AUM. Grayscale's Mini Trust is the most cost-effective, with just a .15% expense ratio. Data by YCharts If we look at the total return of both IBIT and BTC since the inception of the latter at the end of July 2024, we do indeed see BTC gets a very slight edge in total return. For a 'set it and forget it' type of investor, BTC will ultimately outperform IBIT since it's 10 bps cheaper annually. That said, this is not necessarily a meaningful boost in return for an asset that has appreciated in value by over 66% in the last 11 months. For those who want liquidity, IBIT is the clear winner. But for longer-term Bitcoin bulls, BTC will work perfectly fine. Cycle Top and Global Liquidity In previous articles for Seeking Alpha covering Bitcoin and cyclical sell indicators, we've looked at metrics like MVRV and Pi Cycle Top. From where I sit, the fundamental argument for Bitcoin as a peer-to-peer payment network isn't all that compelling, given the lackluster growth in usage and scaling. However, the belief by many that Bitcoin is 'Digital Gold' continues to carry the asset as an 'anti-fiat currency' instrument. As I see it, that view is still a winning one until price returns stop moving with global M2: BTC vs M2 (BGeometrics) I still like this chart quite a bit, and it shows Bitcoin price appreciation could realistically be looked at as a liquidity sponge when global M2 starts to surge on a year-over-year basis. Isolating down to the last 12 months shows Bitcoin's price moving with a lag when global M2 growth hits 7% year over year: BTC vs M2, 1 yr (BGeometrics) Our first example shows M2 growth at 7% in late September 2024. This preceded a 67% rip higher in BTC from $63k to $105k in December. We again saw 7% YoY growth in global M2 at the end of April. Bitcoin's return since then is slightly above 11%. Notably, M2 growth does not appear to be slowing down just yet, with the YoY change again hitting 7.5% as of June 2nd. Should history repeat, we could reasonably expect a Bitcoin price closer to $158k later this summer. Risks The old adage fits here; past performance is not a forecast of future returns. Just because money printing by global governments/central banks has produced higher Bitcoin prices so far, it doesn't necessarily mean that dynamic will continue. Bitcoin was initially intended to be a monetary asset for the people to use on-chain and with each other. 'HODLing' via ETFs isn't exactly what Satoshi Nakamoto had in mind. Furthermore, Bitcoin remains a new asset relative to historical fiat currency substitutes: Bitcoin/Gold Ratio ( Longtermtrends ) Measured against Gold, Bitcoin hasn't gone anywhere since November 2021. I will reiterate what I've said since I first started covering Bitcoin for Seeking Alpha several years ago; those seeking refuge from fiat currency debasement don't need to pick between the two when they can just buy both Bitcoin and Gold. Closing Summary I remain long Bitcoin both directly and through the ETF wrapper. While I personally like FBTC for my long-term position, I think Grayscale's Mini Trust is a perfectly fine way to allocate to Bitcoin in a traditional investment account. BTC is the most cost-effective way to buy that exposure, and I believe the fact that BTC is the only major spot ETF that has seen positive year to date inflows is a testament to that cost-effectiveness.